It's Do or Die for Malema

Step 1: As We Head Towards November Elections

The EFF will not crack under pressure to shift its immigration policy before voting day. Julius Malema considers his open borders stance an absolute cornerstone of his political identity. Bending to pressure from independent citizen movements like the June 30 march would make him look weak to his rivals. They will head into the municipal elections stubbornly holding onto their policy of standing with undocumented migrants.

Step 2: The Crack After November Elections

This is the exact moment the bottom drops out. The decisive verdict is that the EFF will suffer a major loss of grip in these local elections.

Starting from their 2021 municipal baseline of 10.31 percent, they will bleed heavily. They are highly likely to drop down to around 7.5 percent of the municipal vote.

This drop is a direct consequence of their immigration stance. Unemployed township youth who previously voted for the EFF are the exact people filling the streets to demand illegal immigration clampdowns. By ignoring them, the EFF will watch its core electorate walk away. Voters will migrate directly to populist alternatives. 

The real cracking point happens when the final municipal seats are allocated. The EFF will lose a massive number of local councilors and find themselves frozen out of key governing coalitions in Johannesburg, Tshwane, and Ekurhuleni. When you lose council seats, you lose access to municipal boards, budgets, and mayoral committees. Their internal patronage system will starve, causing regional organizers to realize that the immigration policy ruined their careers. The party structures will break right at the ballot box.

Step 3: Next National Elections for the President

Because the foundation cracks so deeply in November 2026, the next presidential election cycle is already compromised for them. They will not enter that national battle as an expanding, powerful force. They will enter it as a shrinking single digit party with an exhausted, underfunded machinery and regional leaders who no longer believe in the core ideology.